NASCAR at Sonoma expert predictions: Will the road race give us an upset? (2024)

Road course ahead! The NASCAR Cup Series is heading west this week for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway, one of five road or street courses in the NASCAR circuit this year. And you know what that means — a ripe race for potential upsets!

As we do every week, we’re rolling out our NASCAR questions for Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, including what to make of all the Kyle Larson waiver drama, who they like at Sonoma and their favorite long-shot picks. They also weigh in on what one piece of memorabilia they’d like to own from the whole history of NASCAR.

The race is on Sunday, June 9, at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.

1. Jeff, you wrote an open letter to NASCAR asking them to grant Kyle Larson a waiver — which they eventually did — and it got a LOT of attention. People have feelings! WE have feelings! In both of your opinions, how much goodwill has NASCAR leadership lost over this, and/or how quickly will it all blow over?

Jeff:The whole thing seemed to be unnecessarily dragged out and was undoubtedly the record length for a waiver decision to be made. In the end, NASCAR officials came to the correct and reasonable conclusion, but it is certainly frustrating that it took so long. That said, I doubt this will linger. By the end of the Sonoma race this weekend, it will likely be an afterthought — at least until the next waiver controversy arises. Had the decision gone the other way, though, it would have been a topic for the entire season.

Jordan: This effectively is a non-issue, and going forward, any talk of whether Larson should’ve been granted a waiver and how the process was handled is done and over. But as Jeff noted, had Larson not received a waiver, this absolutely would’ve been a topic that remained front and center for the duration of the season.

NEWS: @KyleLarsonRacin has been granted a waiver and maintains his eligibility for the #NASCARPlayoffs. pic.twitter.com/bUOPgxCzez

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) June 4, 2024

2. A follow-up to that. The waiver system itself seems a bit controversial. Can you speak to why it exists, why some fans think it’s unnecessary and why the rules aren’t more clear on what actions are eligible for a waiver?

Jeff: NASCAR has never been clear on when it could be used, which is part of the problem. Fans, drivers and media members have had a variety of takes on when it will be given, but no one except NASCAR knows for sure. I remember on the day of the announcement years back, one of the questions was whether a driver could miss a race to attend the birth of their child — and even that was murky. NASCAR likely wrote the rule to be vague on purpose, so that it could judge on a case-by-case basis. Ultimately, though, officials simply don’t want drivers to take a week off or rest up before the playoffs; that’s why most waivers have been approved over the years. But is it truly necessary? Arguably not, since no top driver is going to want to miss the chance to collect some playoff points.

Jordan:As Jeff laid out, the waiver rule exists for numerous reasons. But another reason is that NASCAR wants to ensure that its star drivers compete in every single race so that fans attending an event or watching on TV know they’re seeing the sport’s best compete at all times. What NASCAR doesn’t want is to have a system akin to professional golf or tennis where the stars only come out for select tournaments. And while awarding playoff bonus points is one way to dissuade someone from skipping a race, having the waiver rule in place effectively erases any doubt that a driver may try to take a week off.

3. Back to racing! Very few people had Team Penske’s Austin Cindric to win last Sunday. It was Penske’s first regular season win (Penske’s Joey Logano finished fifth, but Ryan Blaney literally ran out of gas). Does it seem like they’ve figured something out and are reaching a more consistent place, or is this an outlier?

Jeff:Gateway is a bit of an outlier track, but you can’t dispute the speed Penske’s cars showed. They were 1-2-3 in fastest 10-lap averages during practice, and then it appeared Blaney and Cindric were going to run 1-2 until Blaney ran out of fuel. That’s certainly something to keep in mind for upcoming races at Iowa and particularly New Hampshire, but it would still be good to see more consistent speed before we jump to too many conclusions.

Jordan:Overall, Ford teams have found more speed in recent races. In addition to Team Penske coming to life, RFK Racing’s Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher have each been running significantly better over the past month and change. As for Penske specifically, Cindric’s win was significant. It marks Penske’s first win in a points-paying race since last October, a prolonged stretch for an organization that’s won two consecutive championships and should not go this long without scoring a victory.

4. Since this is the last week of one of the question-askers here, there is a very good chance a lot of memorabilia and simming questions will be going away (but wine questions may increase!). I just wanted to thank you both for the advice over the years, including the Raj Caruth heads-up, as he now has a relatively large presence in my collection of cards. My question today is this: If you could own any one thing in the history of NASCAR, like dirt from Bristol or Richard Petty mustache clippings, what would it be?

Jeff:This is such an amazing question that made me think for a long time. I was tempted to go with a pair of Dale Earnhardt Sr.’s sunglasses since I never got to cover “The Intimidator” or see him race in person. Those are certainly iconic. But really, how could you pass up one of Richard Petty’s signature Charlie 1 Horse hats (one that he wore himself, of course)? All you have to do is see a silhouette of the hat and you immediately know whose it is. Imagine that thing sitting in a case in your office. The King’s crown, essentially!

Jordan: One of Richard Petty’s cowboy hats would be awesome. It’s such a signature look that even some non-NASCAR fans would likely recognize. Other cool artifacts that would make for a great collector’s item: something from the meeting Bill France Sr. held at the Streamline Hotel to form NASCAR; the pace car a fan stole then took for a joyride prior to the 1986 spring race at Talladega; the lucky penny Dale Earnhardt Sr. had taped in his car when he finally won the Daytona 500.

5. Wine-Lover Question of the week: What’s Sonoma Raceway like? Sounds fancy and like there’s a lot of good wine! What should new fans know about the track and culture of this race?

Jeff: Sonoma is usually my favorite trip of the year. The track is in a beautiful area, nestled right in those brown Northern California hills. It’s not in the heart of Wine Country, but also not far away at all. You can also reach San Francisco fairly easily, as the track is just north of the city. As for the course itself, there are surprising elevation changes (more than you can tell on TV), and the weather is typically gorgeous at this time of year. Plus, as someone who grew up in the Bay Area, this always feels like somewhat of a homecoming for me. It’s typically more of a casual NASCAR fan crowd than a place like, say, Talladega, but it’s still a great mix of enthusiastic people, and it has a good vibe.

Jordan:Wine + NASCAR = Good time.

6. Who do you like to win at Sonoma?

Jeff:There has only been one road course race so far this season — at Circuit of the Americas in Austin — and it had no “natural” cautions. The only yellow flags were for stage breaks. Expect a similar race this weekend since the Next Gen cars are easier to keep on track than the previous model, which had lots of wheel hop that prompted drivers to make mistakes. So that means with long runs, you’re likely looking at the top road racers to make it happen. William Byron dominated the race at COTA, but Christopher Bell almost made it back to the front after getting buried with track position. So I’ll go with Bell (+800), who could be coming off of two straight victories if not for an engine problem last week at Gateway.

Jordan:It feels as if Elliott is about to go on a run where he knocks out a couple of wins and firmly establishes himself as a title contender. That run could very well begin at Sonoma, a track where he’s finished eighth or better in four of the past five races and where he’s often a fixture near the front. Elliott getting his second win of the season on Sunday would surprise no one.

7. Who is a long shot who could make it happen?

Jeff:Road courses are ripe for potential upsets. Daniel Suarez got his first career victory here a couple of years ago, and Michael McDowell dominated the Indianapolis road course last season. There are a pair of Australian Supercars drivers in the field (points leader Will Brown and Cam Waters), so it’s worth watching them after we saw what Shane van Gisbergen did at Chicago last year. Chase Briscoe is way too low at +10000 (he has two Xfinity Series road course wins and has come close in the Cup Series as well), so you may want to take a flier on him, too.

Jordan:The odds on Penske teammates Joey Logano (+3000) and Ryan Blaney (+3500) are too high for a pair of drivers who’ve won on a road course previously and come in on a bit of an upswing (see above). This is especially true of Logano, whose 12.9 average finish here is third-best among active drivers.

Odds for Toyota/Save Mart 350 race winner

Oddsvia BetMGM.

(Photo of Austin Cindric: Sean Gardner / Getty Images)