College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 8 top 25 games | Sporting News (2024)

Week 8 features a top-10 showdown, two elimination games and a loaded college football schedule that will start the second half of the season off right.

There are four matchups between ranked teams across four Power 5 conferences, and that starts with the Big Ten showdown between No. 7 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State at 12 p.m. on Fox. The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions are among the 11 remaining unbeaten teams in the FBS.

An SEC rivalry matchup between No. 17 Tennessee and No. 11 Alabama follows at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. This is a battle of one-loss teams and a rematch of last year’s classic at Neyland Stadium.

The prime-time schedule features an ACC matchup between No. 16 Duke and No. 4 Florida State at 7:30 p.m. ET, and a Pac-12 championship game rematch between No. 14 Utah and No. 18 USC. With just two weeks left until the first College Football Playoff rankings, the stakes are high.

There are a total of 17 games involving teams ranked in the AP Top 25 in Week 8:

  • Straight up: 103-22 (13-5 in Week 7)
  • ATS: 62-60-3 (10-7-1 in Week 7)

Here are our picks against the spread for Week 8.

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MORE: SN ranks all 133 CFB teams, from No. 1 (Georgia) to No. 133 (Sam Houston)

Week 8 Top 25 picks against the spread

  • No. 7 Penn State at No. 3 Ohio State (-4.5) (12 p.m., Fox)

The Nittany Lions will be a popular upset pick this week – because this is their best chance to win at Ohio Stadium under James Franklin. Penn State's defense is second in the FBS in scoring defense (8.0) and turnover margin. The key will be sophomore quarterback Drew Allar. Will he make enough key plays in the passing game? Ohio State is third in scoring defense (9.7), and Kyle McCord already has a top-10 victory under his belt. Ohio State coach Ryan Day is 4-0 against the Nittany Lions, and they have won those games by an average of 11.5 points per game. Get ready for an instant classic.

Pick: Ohio State wins 28-21 and COVERS the spread.

MORE: Week 8 matchups will start to sort CFP picture

  • No. 22 Air Force (-10) at Navy (12 p.m., CBS)

The Falcons are ranked, and they have won the last three meetings with the Midshipmen. Quarterback Zac Larrier suffered a knee injury in last week's victory against Wyoming, however, and his status will be in doubt. Navy has won back-to-back games, and they have a +9 turnover ratio this season – which ranks third in the FBS. This is the first leg in the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy, which the Air Force holds.

Pick: Air Force wins 20-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • UCF at No. 6 Oklahoma (-18.5) (12 p.m, ABC)

Dillon Gabriel will play his former team, and that adds a little heat to a Big 12 matchup with the Sooners coming off the bye. UCF also had a bye to recalibrate after a three-game losing streak. The Knights gave up a combined 95 points in road losses to Kansas State and Kansas. The Sooners keep rolling, and Gabriel continues his push into the Heisman Trophy conversation.

Pick: Oklahoma wins 45-24 and COVERS the spread.

College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 8 top 25 games | Sporting News (1)

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  • No. 17 Tennessee at No. 11 Alabama (-9.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Tennessee beat Alabama 52-49 last season, but Hendon Hooker and Bryce Young will not be back for the sequel. Joe Milton and Jalen Milroe have improved through SEC play. Which quarterback gets run support? Tennessee (2.98) and Alabama (3.0) both rank in the top 10 in fewest yards per carry allowed. The Vols averaged 3.3 yards on the ground in the loss at Florida on Sept. 16. That cannot happen again if they want to have a chance at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Pick: Alabama wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • North Texas at No. 23 Tulane (-19.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)

Tulane jumped back into the AP Top 25, Michael Pratt is healthy and the path back to a New Year’s Day Six bowl is open. The Green Wave meets the Mean Green in a matchup that hasn’t happened since 2013. North Texas is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and Chandler Rogers is starting to click in first-year coach first-year coach Eric Morris’ system.

Pick: Tulane wins 35-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • Minnesota at No. 24 Iowa (-5.5) (3:30 p.m., NBC)

Iowa has won the last eight meetings for the Floyd of Rosedale, and the Hawkeyes have a chance to take control of the Big Ten West race. The last four meetings at Kinnick Stadium have been decided by an average of 5.2 points per game. The Gophers had a bye week to prepare here, but they are 0-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Iowa is 2-0 ATS when favored by single digits.

Pick: Iowa wins 20-14 and COVERS the spread.

  • Washington State at No. 9 Oregon (-19.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Which team gets up after a tough loss in Week 7? The Cougars were drubbed 44-6 by Arizona and are in danger of a three-game slide. Oregon is coming off a heart-breaking loss at Washington. The Ducks are at home, and they have won the last four meetings in the series. That’s a huge line, but the Cougars have struggled with turnovers and have generated just 47 rushing yards the last two weeks. Oregon will take advantage of that at home.

Pick: Oregon wins 42-17 and COVERS the spread.

MORE: Dan Lanning's failed fourth downs come back to bite Ducks

  • South Carolina at No. 20 Missouri (-6.5) (3:30 p.m., SEC Network)

South Carolina’s slide continues, as the defense allowed 41 points in losses to Florida and Tennessee. Spencer Rattler is coming off a four-TD performance, but Missouri presents a challenge with the combination of Brady Cook, who ranks third in the SEC in passing efficiency, and Luther Burden. Missouri has won the last four meetings in the series.

Pick: Missouri wins 38-31 and COVERS the spread.

  • No. 8 Texas (-22.5) at Houston (4 p.m., Fox)

Texas had a week to stew over the Red River Rivalry loss, and the Cougars are coming off a miraculous Hail Mary victory against West Virginia. This is a chance for Houston to score its first signature Big 12 victory, and these schools have not played since 2002. The Longhorns are 0-2 ATS when favored by more than 20 points this season.

Pick: Texas wins 35-14 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • Virginia at No. 12 North Carolina (-23.5) (6:30 p.m., The CW)

North Carolina is rolling with Drake Maye, who has worked back into the Heisman Trophy conversation the last two weeks. This is a huge line for a conference game, but the Cavaliers allowed 40-plus points in losses to Tennessee and Maryland. The Tar Heels are better than those teams on offense, and they are at home.

Pick: North Carolina wins 38-14 and COVERS the spread.

  • No. 13 Ole Miss (-5.5) at Auburn (7 p.m., ESPN)

Hugh Freeze gets a shot at his former team. Ole Miss has not won at Jordan-Hare Stadium since 2015, so this is hardly a walk-over game for a Rebels' team coming off a bye week. Auburn is averaging 16 points per game in SEC play, however, and the Rebels have an efficient running game with Quinshon Judkins and Ulysses Bentley IV supporting Jaxson Dart. Ole Miss is 1-1 S/U on the road, but their defense traveled well in those games against Tulane and Alabama. We'll trust Lane Kiffin here.

Pick: Ole Miss wins 30-23 and COVERS the spread.

  • Army at No. 19 LSU (-30.5) (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)

Brian Kelly has more than enough experience against Academy teams from his time at Notre Dame. The Irish were 13-2 in those games, but it is a tough offense to simulate in any environment. Army has averaged just 13.3 points per game in its last three losses, however. LSU will take advantage of its opportunities through the air with Jayden Daniels, and Army's -5 turnover ratio will become a problem here.

Pick: LSU wins 42-10 and COVERS the spread.

  • No. 2 Michigan (-24.5) at Michigan State (7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)

The Wolverines are 3-0 ATS in Big Ten play and have demolished conference opponents by a combined score of 180-31. Michigan State has averaged four turnovers per game in their last three losses, but they get the prime-time spotlight at home. Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is 4-4 S/U against Michigan State, but the Spartans are 6-2 ATS and rank third in the FBS in third-down defense. J.J. McCarthy's patience will be the key in getting Michigan to the bye week with an 8-0 record.

Pick: Michigan wins 31-10 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • No. 16 Duke at No. 4 Florida State (-13.5) (7:30 p.m., ABC)

Will Riley Leonard return? That is the question for a Blue Devils' team that has been a super dog under second-year coach Mike Elko. Duke is 6-2 ATS as an underdog, and that includes a 3-1 ATS record as a road underdog. None of Elko's losses are by double digits. This line could drop more before kickoff, which would give some value to the home team. Florida State is 19-0 all time in this series. A Blue Devils' upset here would be shocking.

Pick: Florida State wins 31-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • No. 14 Utah at No. 18 USC (-5.5) (8 p.m., Fox)

How will USC bounce back after a five-turnover disaster against Notre Dame? Utah ranks fifth in the FBS in scoring defense (12.2), and the Utes had their way in the Pac-12 championship last season. Utah has scored 44 points per game in the last three meetings against the Trojans. Despite all that – and perhaps our better judgment – we'll take USC in a bounce-back performance at home.

Pick: USC wins 31-24 and COVERS the spread.

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  • Arizona State at No. 5 Washington (-28.5) (10:30 p.m., FS1)

The Sun Devils had a bye week to prepare for a road trip to Washington, and this is a natural emotional letdown spot for the Huskies. The Huskies average 42 points per game in Pac-12 play, but they are allowing 29.7 points per game. There will be opportunities for Arizona State to score. The Sun Devils beat the Huskies 45-38 last season.

Pick: Washington wins 49-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • No. 25 UCLA (-16.5) at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN)

The Cardinal are coming off the dramatic 46-43 double OT victory against Colorado, but they still allow 36 points per game. UCLA has been inconsistent, but freshman quarterback Dante Moore can work against a pass defense that allowed 321.5 passing yards per game. The Cardinal are 2-0 ATS as underdogs of less than 20 points, and it's a home game.

Pick: UCLA wins 36-22 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.

College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 8 top 25 games | Sporting News (2024)

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